Talking to Voters in Texas—a State Clinton Knows Well

With the polls tightening in both Texas and Ohio, turnout in Hispanic and black communities is seen as a crucial factor in whether Hillary Clinton survives for another day or Barack Obama extends his winning streak. Blacks are about 22 percent of eligible voters in both Texas and Ohio. The Hispanic vote may be as high as 27 percent in Texas, but only about 6 percent in Ohio.

And then there is the women’s vote. Clinton appears to keep a lock on the women’s vote, especially those over the age of 60, in the half dozen primary-eve polls. But that can be misleading. If, as in previous primaries, the turnout is far above historical averages, the polls rarely keep up with the momentum of new voters—many of whom side with Obama. And recent polls show that Obama keeps increasing his margin with white men, in addition to his 9-1 edge with blacks.

The Tuesday primaries will award 370 delegates, from Ohio, Vermont and Rhode Island and from Texas where there is both a primary and, after the polls close, a caucus to choose delegates for the next stage of delegate selection.

Clinton spent weeks in Texas more than three decades ago, organizing for George McGovern, and was reputed to have a solid organization throughout the state. The Obama campaign has morphed out of far less of a campaign structure, but he has put more money into campaign ads than has Clinton.

That could help in splitting off Hispanic voters. But Clinton retains much support.

“I like her. She’s a good woman. She’s done a lot and she’s smart as can be,” says Aurelia Alonzo Zehentmayr, who recently sold her Montessori school near Dallas and relocated to Kingsville in South Texas. She grew up an hour away in McAllen. She says five of her six sisters also are voting for Clinton—“but the sixth switched to Obama because her son told her to.”

She said she never had seen voters as energized. There were no parking spaces free when she cast her advance vote last week, as allowed by Texas law.

Mary Chavez, who just celebrated 30 years as a respiratory therapist at Methodist Hospital in Dallas, was leaning toward Clinton “because she’s already been in the White House and she knows a little more [than Obama].” She recalled the good economic times during the Bill Clinton presidency.

She was puzzled, however, by the flurry of emails she started getting recently about Obama being raised as a Muslim—and more.

Joanna Morgan Shields of Dallas, a retired schoolteacher who backs Obama, said one of her friends also cited the false information in those emails as a reason to oppose Obama. “There are a lot of reasons you could find to oppose him—but that’s not one of them,” she told her.

Shields attended a Dallas rally for Obama several weeks ago where 17,000 people got in but thousands more were outside. A young black man asked if she’d ever been to a political rally before. Yes, she told him, but not one so large. He was 20 and said he had never been so fired up by any candidate.

For herself, Shields said she wanted “a fresh start, a new beginning” and knew friends who had admired Obama at the Harvard Law Review and his ability to bring people together across ideological divides. She also thought he could best beat Republican John McCain.

Sue Laurent of Austin said she, like Shields in Dallas, certainly would vote for Clinton against McCain but backs Obama in the primary. She, too, saw Obama as the stronger candidate against McCain and also disliked Clinton’s vote on Iraq. “I see him as the most progressive person I think can win.”

She was surprised to get an Obama supporter at her door recently who was a New Mexico Republican converted to Obama by her daughter, who lived in Austin.

Laurent said, however, that many of her women friends, including some in a knitting circle that meets weekly, are adamant in their support for Clinton “because they believe that gender bias still is so strong.”

She’s also noticed that the men she knows who are Hillary-haters can’t always say why they feel that way. One said he had heard that “she was mean to a lot of people” and another said her voice was too shrill. “They can’t really give you a good reason—they just hate her.”

Two Republicans from North Dallas said they were alarmed at what seemed likely to be a huge Democratic vote, including ballots cast by Republicans who wanted to back either Clinton or Obama as the least likely to win in November against their candidate, McCain.

“I’m scared to death,” says Holly Hervey of Denton, who still backs President George Bush for his persistence in Iraq, where she says, “we’re battling another religion.”

Although she likes McCain, she says he’s “got the charisma of a vase in my house.” She’s sure he could beat Clinton, however, “because people remember her husband—a slick talker and a phony.”

Mary Lou Coughlin of Plano, north of Dallas, who taught school for 19 years and directed a pre-school program in Plano, said she and her four children back McCain but she’s worried “because the Democrats are really hitting up the young people.

“I’m sorry that McCain is seventy and, I understand, has a volatile temper. But I still don’t think people are going to vote for Hillary.

“I think McCain could take Hillary out,” she said. “I don’t know if he could take Obama out.”